Ladies and Gentlemen of the TSL Universe as I sit here on my porch here in Des Moines, Iowa, in my log cabin, in gorgeous 80 degree weather, I can only think of one thing: Wow, this is perfect football weather. I’m instantly transported back to 2012, Lenny is passing out shots, Darryl Carr QB Superstar has handed me yet another Corona from his bucket, and life is good. Your experience this Spring has been, from all reports, nothing like that at all. I’m super duper sorry for that. But you’re getting there! This Saturday looks okay. You might even get up to 55 degrees! And the wind is only looking like it’ll get up to 16 mph. No rain, so that’s a plus.
Back in my playing days, we had the occasional “bad” season. Technically, no season of TSL football is bad. You get to play the best sport in the world, with the best people in the world. And if you’re one of the many, many (but not nearly enough) TSLers who come hang out at the bar and make friends afterwards, you’re having even more fun!
But now, it’s Week 6. There’s only 3 weeks of TSL football remaining in the Spring 2025 regular season before the Race for Social Co-Ed Football Immortality begins and you’ll be able to have bragging rights throughout the summer. There’s nothing like being able to sip a Surfside while sitting on your friend’s mom’s new boyfriend’s boat in the middle of July thinking about how you’re one of the best Social Co-Ed Football Players in the world. That means it’s time to start getting serious. The stretch run is officially here.
We’ve had a pretty interesting season so far that’s seen some great games, and we’ve had some teams really emerge as shockingly dominant or unexpectedly horrible at this point in the season. While I always say that the standings and games early on don’t give us a clear picture on how things will end up once the Great Race begins, we’re getting to the point where the pretenders and contenders kind of are who they are. With all of the TSL teams having played at least half of their schedule, we can dive into some of the numbers and see who is truly dominant, who has had some bad luck along the way and could be a dark horse, and who might look good right now but they could be frauds.
I took a look at everyone’s current “Strength of Schedule” (SoS) to get a better idea of how hard (or easy) their path has been so far during the Spring 2025 season. I mixed that with the Average Point Differential that the TSL QB Power Rankings Committee showed us this week and looked for any teams that fit the bill of dominant, bad luck, or frauds. I’m aware that there’s a lot to this simplistic approach (I understand the top/bottom teams don’t have to play themselves so it skews some things), so don’t fill my inbox with lots of complaints about it.
D1
LAST WEEK’S GAMES
Eyes Downtown 34, Frodo Swaggins 16
Eyes Downtown 31, Sticky Bandits 23
Legends 41, Freeballers 16
Eyes Downtown just about cements themselves as the (at worst) #2 team in D1 when they defeated Sticky. They also showed Frodo has a bit more work to do than maybe we’ve been letting on. The Legends just cruised to a win over the Freeballers in the other game.
RANDOM ANALYSIS
SoS Rankings:
|
Freeballers |
0.594 |
|
WAD |
0.579 |
|
ED |
0.552 |
|
Legends |
0.484 |
|
Sticky |
0.482 |
|
Frodo |
0.406 |
When you look at the SoS combined with the Power Rankings PD, D1 doesn’t give us anything too interesting. Legends/ED are legit, not a surprise. I think the one thing that stands out the most is that What A Dump could be considered a bit of a sleeping giant that could pop off over the next few weeks, and that we’ve been overrating Frodo a bit for sure.
THIS WEEK’S GAMES:
EYES DOWNTOWN VS STICKY BANDITS (+6) - The Sticky Bandits get an immediate chance at redemption after losing to ED last weekend. A win here would give Sticky that shot at the #2 seed, but a loss would all but clinch it for Eyes Downtown. STICKY BANDITS BY 7
LEGENDS VS WHAT A DUMP (+8) - If WAD is going to be a potential sleeper for D1, this would be the time for them to prove it. While I think a loss doesn’t completely derail that thought, a win would shake everything up like a snow globe. Doesn’t matter. LEGENDS BY 10
D2
LAST WEEK’S GAMES
The Malones 71, Show Me Your TDs 0
Can’t Touch This 45, Mavericks 6
Can’t Touch This 21, Show Me Your TDs 0
Jabronies 29, Scared Hitless 22
The Malones ran roughshod over SMYTDs, who would drop to 0-2 later on with a loss to CTT. CTT went 2-0 on the day with a dominating win over the Mavericks, who seem to still be in a Championship hangover or something this season. Meanwhile, the Jabronies took home a close victory over Scared Hitless.
RANDOM ANALYSIS
SoS Rankings:
|
SMYTDS |
0.833 |
|
Scared Hitless |
0.739 |
|
Mavericks |
0.632 |
|
Jabronies |
0.421 |
|
CTT |
0.217 |
|
Malones |
0.167 |
To nobody’s surprise, SMYTDs has had an insane schedule, but we’re going to throw them out of this for obvious reasons. If they’re reading this, I hope they drop down to D6 and start from scratch. The interesting thing? Is Can’t Touch This a potential fraud? Two forfeit wins and one SMYTDs beat down inflated a lot of stats, but it’s hard to state that after the recent beatdowns of the Mavericks. But what about The Malones? The Malones have only played SMYTDs twice, the Jabronies once, and Scared Hitless twice, and Scared Hitless beat them in the most recent game they played. I think after the next few weeks we’re going to see that D2 is a lot closer than it seems right now. Between the Top 5 teams anyway.
THIS WEEK’S GAMES
MAVERICKS VS THE MALONES (EVEN) - A Championship Rematch! After last Fall’s excellent title game, we finally get to see a rematch between these two teams. I think both teams are going to bring their best, and this game will come down to who responds more positively to whatever mistakes they make. MAVERICKS BY 3
CAN’T TOUCH THIS VS JABRONIES (+7) - The quickest way to confirm you’re legit? Stomp the Jabronies too. Another quality win over a tough out to go to 6-0 should quiet any potential doubts. On the other side of things, the Jabronies can show the world that D2 has a lot more contenders than it seemed not too long ago with a win. CAN’T TOUCH THIS BY 10
SCARED HITLESS VS SHOW ME YOUR TDS (+20) - Scared Hitless gets their turn with SMYTDs. SCARED HITLESS BY 20
D3
LAST WEEK’S GAMES
716 20, Bullet Club 14
Practice Squad 46, Passing While Intoxicated 30
Buffalo Vice 46, Bullet Club 34
Becca Gets Reccked 38, DXYZ 34
Cunning Stunts 55, Buffalo Vice 38
716 walks away with a nice win over Bullet Club, who would go on to fall to 0-2 on the day with a loss to Vice. Vice would then lose the second half of their own double header to the Stunts, who are looking more and more like, well, The Stunts. Practice Squad continues to roll, knocking PWI out from the list of the unbeatens with a dominating win. Lastly, BGR outlasts DXYZ to sneak out a 4 point win.
RANDOM ANALYSIS
SoS Rankings:
|
Vice |
0.609 |
|
GQ |
0.609 |
|
DXYZ |
0.583 |
|
BGR |
0.579 |
|
Bullet Club |
0.579 |
|
Cunning Stunts |
0.526 |
|
Practice Squad |
0.482 |
|
PWI |
0.421 |
|
716 |
0.409 |
|
Wanderers |
0.348 |
Looking at D3, it’s easy to notice that the Wanderers haven’t played the hardest schedule, which could help explain why they’re uncharacteristically running through the division as opposed to one score, last second wins. Expect them to come back to Earth a little bit, but they’re still very good. The big surprise? Buffalo Vice. They’ve played the hardest schedule, but they average less than a TD loss. Their schedule gets easier in the next few weeks. Also, after some early season rust, the Cunning Stunts are looking more and more dominant. 716 looks to slip down the standings, and the GirthQuakes are poised to climb up the standings a bit as well. Remember, they DID beat the Stunts this season.
THIS WEEK’S GAMES
WANDERERS VS PASSING WHILE INTOXICATED (+8) - Here’s a D3 Championship Title fight. The Wanderers have been nothing short of awesome this season, and PWI has also looked quite good as well. Are the Wanderers as dominant as they seem? Is PWI overachieving a little? The loss to Practice Squad suggests that may be the case. WANDERERS BY 2
BUFFALO VICE VS D-GENERATION X, Y, AND Z (+6) - Buffalo Vice, as I just said, is playing some really good football. And DXYZ simply isn’t. BUFFALO VICE BY 10
BECCA GETS RECCKED VS GIRTHQUAKES (+10) - Who will be there for BGR? Inquiring minds want to know. Attendance is always the concern for BGR, and my super special GF rankings have them pegged as the 2nd best team in the division….when they’re all there. BECCA GETS RECCKED BY 3
CUNNING STUNTS VS BULLET CLUB (+12) - Two teams heading in opposite directions this season. It’s been said that the way to beat the Stunts are having 3-5 good girls and having tall males who can catch. BC has had their full girl squad all season and most of the tall males who can catch are all hurt. CUNNING STUNTS BY 13
PRACTICE SQUAD VS 716 (+6) - Well, if 716 is bothered by being told they’re going to fall in the standings, a win here would go FAR in proving otherwise. A rough start to the season for the Squad has been erased, and now they’re sitting easily in the top tier of title contenders. This is probably a bigger game for 716, but B and the Squad will make it feel like it matters more to them. PRACTICE SQUAD BY 10
D4
LAST WEEK’S GAMES:
Bird Watching In My Birkenstocks 46, Come From Behind 20
Bird Watching In My Birkenstocks 40, Puckett 12
If anyone wasn’t sure, BWB is a top D4 team, as they officially announced it last week with two really dominant wins over other contenders.
RANDOM ANALYSIS
SoS Rankings:
|
Cobblestone |
0.611 |
|
Come From Behind |
0.591 |
|
Mike's Detailing |
0.550 |
|
Tots |
0.545 |
|
Birkenstocks |
0.478 |
|
ILF |
0.476 |
|
Puckett |
0.429 |
|
Vaspian |
0.421 |
What the stats are showing is that not only are BWB and ILF the class of the division, Mike’s Detailing is just as good. The Tots are slightly behind those three, and yes B, I’m aware that you beat MD already. It also shows that Puckett has been a bit overrated this season and should be a little “Fraud-y”. Look for a CFB resurgence as well, after a midseason dip.
THIS WEEK’S GAMES
COME FROM BEHIND VS COBBLESTONE (+14) - Nothing will help a resurgence quite like a game against Cobblestone this season. COME FROM BEHIND BY 10
TATER TOTS VS PUCKETT (+7) - The Tots are looking to keep pace at the top of the standings, and prove they’re in the “top tier” regardless of my super accurate stats. Puckett looks to avoid being the frauds here. TATER TOTS BY 3
INTERDIMENSIONAL LIGHTNING FALCONS VS VASPIAN (+13) - ILF rolls in as one of the top teams in the division, which was pretty much expected. They have a bit more competition up there than they thought, but getting an actual QB has done wonders for them, so it evens out. Vaspian has played a weak schedule, and while they haven’t performed how they thought they would this season, there’s still time to get it together. This isn’t the time. INTERDIMENSIONAL LIGHTNING FALCONS BY 17
INTERDIMENSIONAL LIGHTNING FALCONS VS PUCKETT (+10) - Puckett has a hell of a doubleheader ahead of them this week, and even they get by the Tots, I can’t imagine they squeak out a win here against an ILF team that shouldn’t get too tested by Vaspian. INTERDIMENSIONAL LIGHTNING FALCONS BY 12
BIRD WATCHING IN MY BIRKENSTOCKS VS MIKE’S DETAILING (EVEN) - Well, here we go. Mike’s Detailing can help out the super secret formulas by taking a victory here in a matchup between what should be two of the top teams in the division. BWB has looked REALLY good lately, and historically I ride the hot hand here and I end up being wrong, so I’m going to switch it up here. MIKE’S DETAILING BY 3
MIKE’S DETAILING VS COBBLESTONE (+10) - Regardless of the outcome of the game before, MD gets a “get right” game either way when they take on Cobblestone at 3:00. Until I see more from Cobblestone, it’ll be hard to pick them in any game. MIKE’S DETAILING BY 10
D5
LAST WEEK’S GAMES
Sausage McMuffins 21, Blitzkrieg 21
Two Tuddies 36, Pit Harade 8
Not So Sticky 26, Blitzkrieg 9
Two Tuddies 36, Blitzkrieg 14
Blitzkrieg did the extremely rare tripleheader, and they started off with a tie against the McMuffins because of course they did. They’d pile up losses against NSS and the Tud Buds along the way too, and finish 0-2-1 on the day. The Tuddies also got a victory against Pit Harade to go to 5-0 and are sitting in the Driver’s Seat for the D5 title.
RANDOM ANALYSIS
|
Mo' Chicken |
0.763 |
|
Pit Harade |
0.760 |
|
State Farm |
0.739 |
|
Stir The Sauce |
0.500 |
|
Blitzkrieg |
0.483 |
|
Not So Sticky |
0.480 |
|
McMuffins |
0.300 |
|
PowerPuff Girls |
0.263 |
|
Tuddies |
0.220 |
My super secret comprehensive model suggests that Jake From State Farm is the sleeping giant in this division and they’re about to pop off and surprise everyone. Maybe this formula is broken. Or maybe JFSF will make me look even more BRILLIANT. It has the PowerPuff Girls as the top team overall, which makes sense. And it has the Tuddies as complete frauds who haven’t played anyone good yet. Considering they play Not So Sticky, PowerPuff Girls, and the McMuffins still, that might be true. There’s a world where the Tuddies are 5-3 at season’s end, isn’t there? I wouldn’t call them frauds though.
THIS WEEK’S GAMES
STIR THE SAUCE VS PIT HARADE (+3) - STS comes into the game as slight favorites, but it’s worth noting that PH has only played the top 5 teams in the division so far so their numbers could be misleading. If either team wants to avoid the 8v9 play in game, they’ll need this win. It doesn’t guarantee they won’t be a part of it, but the tiebreaker helps. STIR THE SAUCE BY 10
JAKE FROM STATE FARM VS MO’ CHICKEN (+4) - I guess I have a new ride or die, at least for this week. JAKE FROM STATE FARM BY 14
BLITZKRIEG VS MO’ CHICKEN (+7) - Okay, 0-2-1 in one week isn’t the best outcome for BK, but at least they gave it a go. Mo’ Chicken hasn’t been a great team at all this season, save for the very random 38-14 win over STS. They’ve allowed over 50 points in all of their other games. BLITZKRIEG BY 18
TWO TUDDIES VS NOT SO STICKY (+1) - A fun rivalry game, as these two teams have had some good battles in the past. The Tuddies are going to be more focused than they were before they read that they might be on fraud watch a minute ago, and to be fair they’re a very good and fast team. This would be the win to get them on the right path. TWO TUDDIES BY 10
POWERPUFF GIRLS VS SAUSAGE MCMUFFINS (+7) - The Powerpuffs come back this week looking to keep on rolling. They get a very good test in the McMuffins, who have looked so good in D5 so far. Girl Power. POWERPUFF GIRLS BY 12
D6
LAST WEEK’S GAMES
Raw Milkers 20, Balls Deep 12
Select 44, Intentional Clowning 32
TMA 34, Blue Ballers 17
Raw Milkers 46, Irish Giants 8
Sticky Laces 35, Dogg Pound 13
Sticky Laces win! Sticky Laces win! They finally get the first W of the season over the Dogg Pound. Select randomly looked like world beaters this week as they put down the clowns 44-32. Will they keep that up? The Raw Milkers got their first TWO wins this week, first upsetting Balls Deep, and then dominating the Irish Giants. Finally, TMA put down the Blue Ballers to remain the only unbeaten team in D6.
RANDOM ANALYSIS
|
Sticky Laces |
0.652 |
|
Raw Milkers |
0.607 |
|
Select |
0.520 |
|
Clowning |
0.480 |
|
TMA |
0.476 |
|
Irish Giants |
0.476 |
|
Ballers |
0.417 |
|
Balls Deep |
0.417 |
|
Dogg Pound |
0.320 |
First thing to say is that TMA is the best team in the division and their play in D6 is relative (according to my super secret formula) to Legends/ED in D1. That’s the TMA we all know and love. As for frauds, well, Balls Deep is once again the team that looks really good to start the season and as the season goes on they look worse and worse. The model predicts that again. Also, Dogg Pound may be taking advantage of an easier early season schedule and should fall off a little. As for sleepers/dark horses? I’ve talked about Sticky Laces all season, and their very hard schedule combined with an average of a one score loss suggests that you don’t want to play them in the playoffs. But it's the Raw Milkers that have the best chance to not only be a dark horse, they could win the whole thing. They only lost to TMA by 6, don't forget, and they’ve gotten better as the season has progressed. There’s also an argument to be made that if Select keeps it up, they could also make a run.
THIS WEEK’S GAMES
TMA vs INTENTIONAL CLOWNING (+8) - The recent TMA would take this hot start and lose this game by 12. But this one feels different, Ryan has played very well, and the team feels more like a team than they have recently. All the things you want. TMA BY 10
STICKY LACES VS IRISH GIANTS (+13) - I think it’s time to put the Irish Giants to bed on this season. It’s been a tough one and now they’re getting a hungry Sticky Laces that are back on the rise? STICKY LACES BY 17
BALLS DEEP VS DOGG POUND (+10) - Oh cool, the two teams predicted to fall down the standings get to play each other. Both teams need this win, but overall I trust Balls Deep to score more. BALLS DEEP BY 8
BLUE BALLERS VS IRISH GIANTS (+14) - The Blue Ballers finally tasted defeat in this season last week, but losing to TMA when apparently not having your starting QB isn’t the worst loss to take. They’re still a top team in the division and should have an easy time this week. BLUE BALLERS BY 10
RAW MILKERS VS SELECT (+6) - The Raw Milkers might be good and getting better. Select might be good and getting better. At least the Milkers are more consistent as of right now. RAW MILKERS BY 12
FIVE QUESTIONS FOR SATURDAY
TEN FINAL THOUGHTS FOR SATURDAY
-GF OUT